According to the forecast data of international stainless steel Forum (ISSF) annual meeting, Indonesia will surpass India as the world's second largest stainless steel producer in 2021 as Chinese companies build up huge production capacity in Indonesia. Indonesia currently ranks fourth in global stainless steel production, and its total production is expected to exceed that of Japan and India to 4.2 million tons in 2021, with a year-on-year growth of 75%.
KK Pahuja, President of India Stainless Steel Development Association (issda), said that on the one hand, Indonesia's stainless steel production capacity is 5.5 million tons, on the other hand, China's exports may decline due to the cancellation of export tax rebate, so Chinese companies' exports in Indonesia will increase significantly. Imports from Indonesia are expected to nearly double.
According to statistics, in 2020, the total output of crude steel of 32 domestic stainless steel plants will be 29.8381 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 2.97%, accounting for 60% of the global output. In 2020, the global stainless steel production will drop by 2.5% due to the impact of the epidemic, and China's dominant position will be further strengthened. On the other hand, according to issda data, India's stainless steel production will reach 3.2 million tons in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%, and is expected to reach 3.5 million tons in 2021. India's stainless steel market is the second fastest growing market after China, and has been the target of large-scale dumping of stainless steel plates. In the period of 2019-2020, up to 24% of the market will be occupied by imports, half of which will come from Indonesia.
Indonesia's stainless steel production capacity is about 5.5 million tons, while the local demand is only about 200000 tons, so it is basically export-oriented. The total output of crude stainless steel in Indonesia will be 2.53 million tons in 2020, an increase of 14.08% compared with that in 2019.